预见2020年市场低迷——全网首发UBS《2019年全球家族办公室报告》

　　预见2020年市场低迷——全网首发UBS《2019年全球家族办公室报告》

　　Global Family Office Report 2019: the world’s leading family office research study offers insight into performance, investments and structural issues.

　　瑞银集团对于世界领先的家族办公室进行调查与研究后，于苏黎世时间2019年9月24日发出《2019年全球家族办公室报告》，总结了对全球家族办公室投资表现和投资结构问题的洞察。笔者在第一时间进行了概要翻译。

　　Key findings:

　　Average investment returns stood at 5.4 percent for 12-month period

　　Over half of family offices anticipate a market downturn by 2020

　　Family offices believe that wealthy families will play a role in addressing global challenges

　　1 in 3 family offices now engage in sustainable investing

　　Upsurge in succession planning driven by generational wealth transfer

　　主要观点：

　　过去12个月的平均投资回报率为5.4%；

　　超过50%的家族办公室预计到2020年会出现市场低迷；

　　家族办公室相信，富有家族将在应对全球挑战中有所表现；

　　超过33%的家族办公室现在从事可持续性投资；

　　代际传承的压力驱动企业家提前进行规划。

　　以下为概要翻译：

　　Zurich, 24 September 2019 – UBS, in partnership with Campden Wealth Research, has today launched its annual report on family offices. The Global Family Office Report 2019 surveyed principals and executives in 360 family offices around the world, with an average of USD 917 million in assets under management.

　　瑞银联合坎普登财富研究公司在苏黎世于2019年9月24日发布了《2019年全球家族办公室报告》，这份报告调查了全球360个家族办公室的管理人员，平均管理资产为9.17亿美元。

　　The average family office portfolio delivered a 5.4 percent return

　　家族办公室的平均投资回报率为5. 4 %

　　Developed market equities produced an average return of 2.1 percent for family offices; falling 5.2 percentage points below expectations. Developing market equities returned -1.1 percent, trailing -10 percentage points behind expectations.

　　Private equity fared the best of all asset classes for family offices, achieving an average return of 16 percent for direct investments and 11 percent for funds-based investing.

　　The performance of real estate also held up well, with an average return of 9.4 percent. Family offices have increased their allocations to the asset class by 2.1 percentage points, and real estate now accounts for 17 percent of the average family office portfolio.

　　发达市场股票给家族办公室带来平均回报率为2.1%，比预期下降5.2个百分点。

　　新兴市场股票的实际回报率为-1.1%，落后预期10个百分点。

　　在家族办公室的所有资产类别中，私募股权表现最好，直接投资的平均回报率为16%，以基金形式投资的回报率为11%。

　　房地产市场表现也不错，平均回报率为9.4%。家族办公室的在房地产方面的资产配置增加了2.1%，房地产现在占家族办公室平均投资组合的17%。

　　Sara Ferrari, Head of Global Family Office Group, UBS, said

　　“Family offices are looking to increase their allocations to real estate and private equity, particularly direct investments which offer families greater operational control. While family offices are concerned about the uncertainty in financial markets, they remain convinced that longer-term investments can deliver superior returns.”

　　瑞银全球家庭办公室主管萨拉·费拉里（Sara Ferrari）表示：

　　“家族办公室正在寻求增加对房地产和私募股权的配置比例，特别是股权直接投资，这使家族拥有更多的经营控制权。

　　家族办公室对金融市场的不确定性感到担忧，但他们仍然相信，长期投资可以带来丰厚回报。

　　Dr. Rebecca Gooch, Director of Research, Campden Wealth said:

　　“Family offices have been navigating volatile markets, and this is reflected in disappointing investment returns across most asset classes. The notable exceptions were illiquid investments, which continued to perform well. Real estate and direct private equity actually exceeded the high expectations that were set in a buoyant market at the start of last year.”

　　坎普登财富公司研究部主任丽贝卡·古奇博士（Rebecca Gooch）说：

　　“家族办公室一直在动荡的市场中探索，发现大多数资产类别的投资回报率令人失望。

　　明显的例外是低流动性的投资，这种投资继续表现良好。房地产和直接私募股权实际上超过了去年初市场繁荣时设定的较高预期。”

　　Family offices anticipate market disruption, and begin to prepare for it

　　家族办公室预见到市场会出现混乱，并开始为之做好准备

　　55 percent of family office executives are expecting a market downturn to commence by 2020. In response, family offices are beginning to consider safeguards to moderate potential losses and capitalise on new opportunities.

　　Nearly half of those surveyed are currently re-aligning their investment strategy to mitigate risk （45 percent） or take advantage of opportunistic events （42 percent）。 Another two-fifths （42 percent） are increasing their cash reserves, while a fifth （22 percent） are reducing leverage exposure within their investments.

　　55%的家族办公室管理者预计，市场在2020年将出现低迷状态。

　　作为预防措施，家族办公室开始考虑采取一些相对保守的策略，以减少潜在的损失，并发现新机会。

　　将近一半的受访者目前正在调整投资策略，来降低风险（45%）或寻找偶发事件带来的机会（42%）。

　　另有五分之二（42%）的人正在增加现金储备，而五分之一（22%）正在降低其投资中的杠杆敞口。

　　Family offices were also asked for their views on macro geopolitical, business and economic issues, with findings including:

　　63 percent believe that Brexit will be negative for the UK as an investment destination in the long-term

　　84 percent believe populism will not fade by 2020

　　87 percent believe that artificial intelligence will be the next biggest disruptive force in global business

　　More than half （57 percent） think blockchain technology will fundamentally change the way in which we invest in the future

　　家族办公室对宏观地缘政治、商业及经济问题也表达意见如下：

　　63%的人认为，从长期来看，脱欧对于英国作为投资目的地的影响并不乐观

　　84%的人相信到2020年民粹主义不会消失

　　87%的人相信人工智能将成为全球商业的下一个最大突破力量

　　超过半数（57%）的人认为区块链技术将从根本上改变我们投资于未来的方式

　　Dr. Rebecca Gooch said:

　　“Family offices are cautious about geopolitical tensions, and there is a widespread sense that we’re reaching the end of the current market cycle. While the average family office hasn’t made wholesale changes to its portfolio, many have been building up cash reserves and deleveraging their investments in anticipation of disruption ahead.”

　　丽贝卡·古奇博士说：

　　“家族办公室对地缘政治紧张持谨慎态度，人们普遍认为，我们正处于当前市场周期的尾声。

　　虽然一般来说，家族办公室并没有对其投资组合进行大规模的调整，但因为大家已经预计到未来会出现混乱，所以许多人已经积累了现金储备，并在他们的投资中进行了去杠杆化。

　　Wealthy families expected to play an active role in addressing climate change and economic inequality

　　富有家族将在应对气候变化和经济不平等方面发挥积极作用

　　8 in 10 family offices believe that the world’s wealthiest families will play an increasingly active role in helping to address global challenges historically reserved for governments. Similarly, two-thirds （65 percent） believe they have a role to play in alleviating economic inequality. Over half （53 percent） of family offices consider climate change to represent the single greatest threat to the world.

　　80%的家族办公室认为，世界上最富有的家族将在全球性挑战方面发挥日益积极的作用，虽然这些挑战是都应该由政府来承担的社会责任。

　　同样，三分之二（65%）的家族办公室认为他们可以在缓解经济不平等方面发挥作用，超过半数（53%）的家族办公室认为气候变化是对世界最大的威胁。

　　These values are reflected in the growing popularity of sustainable and impact investing strategies. 1 in 3 family offices now engage in sustainable investing, while 19 percent of the average family office portfolio is now dedicated to sustainability. This number is predicted to rise to 32 percent within the next five years, which is unsurprising given that 85 percent of all sustainable investments have met or exceeded expectations.

　　这些价值观反映在可持续性投资和影响力投资战略的日益流行上。

　　1/3的家族办公室现在从事可持续性投资，同时家族办公室中19%的资产目前配置在可持续性投资上。

　　这一数字预计将在未来五年上升到32%，这并不奇怪，因为85%的可持续投资都达到或超过了预期。

　　A quarter of all family offices currently engage in impact investing. Of these, impact investing represents 14 percent of the overall portfolio on average. This figure is expected to rise to 25 percent within the next five years.

　　四分之一的家族办公室目前参与到影响力投资中。

　　平均来看，影响力投资占家族投资组合总额的14%，这一数字预计将在今后五年内将上升到25%。

　　Sara Ferrari said:

　　“We have seen family offices become much more engaged in discussions about sustainable and impact investing over the last 12 months. This is no longer seen as a ‘side project’ or preoccupation of the Next Gen, but a priority for the family as a whole. Many products are now recognised by family offices as fully-fledged investment tools that can generate good returns.”

　　萨拉·法拉利说：

　　“在过去的12个月里，家族办公室越来越多地参与可持续性投资和影响力投资的讨论中来。

　　这不再被看作是‘边缘项目’，也不再是‘下一代’关注的事情，而是整个家族的优先项目。

　　可持续性投资和影响力投资的许多产品现在都被家族办公室认为是能产生良好回报的成熟投资工具。”

　　Family offices step up succession planning

　　家族办公室加强接班人计划

　　There has been a marked increase in succession planning. 54 percent of family offices now have a succession plan in place, up from 43 percent last year.

　　传承规划的被重视度显著增加。54%的家族办公室目前在设定传承计划，相比去年的43%，有所提高。

　　The average age of a Next Gen upon succession is 45 years old. Only 29 percent of Next Gens are younger than 40 at the time of succession. According to family offices, the most important challenges to succession are: discomfort in discussing a sensitive subject matter （cited by 37 percent）； Next Gens still being too young to plan for their future roles （cited by 36 percent）； the matriarch/patriarch won’t relinquish control （cited by 33 percent） and; Next Gens are not qualified enough to manage the family wealth （cited by 31 percent）。

　　新生代的平均年龄为45岁，在继承时，只有29%的新生代人不满40岁。根据家族办公室的说法，最重要的传承挑战是：

　　在讨论敏感话题时感到不舒服（37%有提到）

　　新生代还太年轻，还不能承担未来的领袖角色（36%有提到）

　　第一代不想放弃控制权（33%有提到）

　　新生代没有足够合格来管理家族财富（31%有提到）

　　Sara Ferrari said:

　　“It’s encouraging to see a strong increase in succession planning. This is an issue we have been advising our clients to prioritize for some time, and it is not easy to get right. Succession often spans a series of complex matters involving business, investments and family relationships. Written plans are important, but they should be considered as part of a broader process of preparing the Next Gen to take control. The key is to start early.”

　　萨拉·法拉利说：

　　“传承计划的受到重视令人鼓舞。这是我们一直建议客户优先处理的问题，但这并不容易。

　　传承常常涉及一系列复杂的问题，涉及企业、投资和家族关系。书面计划是重要的，但它们只是新生代继承过程中的一部分。

　　关键是要早点出发。”

（责任编辑：家族办公室https://www.familyofficeschina.com/）